[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151724 
TXZ000-151930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX / HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 151724Z - 151930Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY.

STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ON STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
NEW DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON SWRN FLANK INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 60S FROM SAT
INTO DRT AND MINOR PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WELL ESTABLISHED 2KM DEEP COLD POOL PER
AREA VWPS SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY. 
GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS...STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WITHIN SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH...AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...

29810236 30040187 30090145 30240007 30089969 29349845
28479919 28420032 29140073 29420106 29740145 

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