[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130300 
MOZ000-ILZ000-130430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO POTENTIALLY INTO W-CNTRL/SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262...

VALID 130300Z - 130430Z

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MO...POTENTIALLY SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS
OF W-CNTRL AND SWRN IL OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 0250Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF MCS COLD POOL OVER RANDOLPH...HOWARD AND COOPER
COUNTIES IN MO. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT INTERACTION OF COLD POOL WITH WRN EDGE OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM N OF
COU THROUGH STL INTO SRN IL /S OF MVN/ MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
INTENSIFICATION.

THOUGH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD AWAY FROM
STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT...COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE FLOW MAY SUPPORT
CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE
REQUIRED E OF WW 262 IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

..MEAD.. 05/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

38309294 39479280 40349267 40289193 39689065 38709046
37969090 37899221 

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