[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130348 
OKZ000-TXZ000-130445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130348Z - 130445Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH 05-06Z. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 0333Z...FREDRICK OK RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION/VORTICITY CENTER OVER BECKHAM COUNTY WITH TRAILING TSTMS
INTENSIFYING ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL FROM HARMON COUNTY WSWWD
INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE SUSTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER SWRN OK WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.
CURRENT VWP FROM FREDRICK OK REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK STORM-RELATIVE
MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH ALREADY ORGANIZING COLD POOL SHOULD
PROMOTE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..MEAD.. 05/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

34589915 35139864 35319811 35259754 34729708 34009741
33899864 

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