[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130235 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS...WRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

VALID 130235Z - 130400Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS
IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.

AS OF 0220Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED TSTMS N OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KIOWA COUNTY IN
S-CNTRL KS NEWD THROUGH RENO AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES IN CNTRL KS. AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM WAS LOCATED OVER DONLEY COUNTY IN
THE TX PNHDL. PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS
INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG NOSE OF 
BROAD SLY LLJ...AND VERY NEAR 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ RESIDES N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE TX
PNHDL...DECREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG NEAR ONGOING STORMS OVER CNTRL
KS. THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE WITH ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEWD INTO CNTRL KS.

..MEAD.. 05/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

38559844 38539532 34839910 34860207 

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