[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122108 
TXZ000-122315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122108Z - 122315Z

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SWRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF SIGNS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOME MORE EVIDENT...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AT 12/21Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TOWERING CU ALONG AN AXIS FROM 50S LBB TO 20W MAF TO 10SW FST
COINCIDENT WITH THE DRYLINE. THERE IS ALSO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS MTNS. CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING IN THIS REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN LBB AND MAF AND GRADUALLY INCREASES
TO THE SOUTH.

AS UPPER LOW CENTER OVER CO/WY LIFTS NEWD...SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30KT. THIS MAY
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DESPITE
THIS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8 C/KM/ AND MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.

..BANACOS.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32140289 33000266 33200254 33210174 33180118 32980102
32320114 31300140 30360177 30150227 30150285 30200340
30460376 31190326 

WWWW