[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122218 
KSZ000-OKZ000-122315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0845
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258...

VALID 122218Z - 122315Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 258 WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AND A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

AS OF 22Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER
WOODS COUNTY IN NWRN OK WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING ON SRN
FLANK OF BOWING STRUCTURE /CURRENTLY E OF HUT/ SWD INTO SEDGWICK AND
SUMNER COUNTIES. LATEST SHORT TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD ALONG SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK AND S-CNTRL/SERN KS WITHIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

CURRENT VWP FROM VANCE AFB AND LAMONT PROFILER INDICATE LARGELY SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL...GRADUALLY VEERING TO
SWLY IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED...SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW...LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AND POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSTREAM STORM SEEDING AND RESULTANT COLD POOL
PRODUCTION ALL SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT.

..MEAD.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38189773 38049625 37059645 35879739 35779843 36009946
37289876 

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