[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122048 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NEB...NERN KS...SWRN IA...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259...

VALID 122048Z - 122215Z

MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE...EVIDENT AT
2030Z FROM CASS COUNTY NEB SWD THROUGH POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY KS THEN
SSWWD INTO WW 258.  SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO MAY INCREASE NE OF WW
ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY MOVES OVER STABLE SFC AIR BUT REMAINS IN ENVIRONMENT OF
FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATTER
AREA.

SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING
SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO...AND PRONOUNCED CLEARING N OF
BOUNDARY OVER NWRN MO/SWRN IA. MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB...RUC
SOUNDINGS AND PROFILER WINDS FROM LTH ALL INDICATE GREATLY ENLARGED
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVER REGION ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM
AGL SRH AS HIGH AS ABOUT 300 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS AROUND 50
KT.  DISCRETE STORMS CROSSING THIS BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE
TORNADOES...OTHERWISE DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
EXPECT AIR MASS WITHIN 20-30 NM N OF BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE
DESTABILIZING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY MOVES NWD
ACROSS NWRN MO AND REMAINDER NERN KS...AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE
BAND.  MEANWHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED BEHIND
INITIAL LINE OVER NEB GIVEN NARROW WINDOW OF ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION BEFORE FROPA.  STABLE LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA...BUT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE OVER 1000
J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

38599658 41409759 41439510 41439590 42289588 42829510
42839419 42529361 41749329 40919362 40509478 41429509
38599416 

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