[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121816 
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-121915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121816Z - 121915Z

SEVERE TSTM WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SWRN
KS..NE OF WW 257.

SFC ANALYSIS AND CLOUD LINE IN VIS IMAGERY INDICATES DECELERATING
COLD FRONT WITHIN 30 NM E OF A CNK-SLN-HUT-P28 LINE.  MID/UPPER FLOW
HAS STRONG COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY.  BAND OF TSTMS IS
MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD FROM OK/TX PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. 
ALSO...SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AND MOVE NEWD. 
TSTMS INITIATING ALONG FRONT MAY ATTAIN ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE CELLS/ANVILS MERGE AND ACTIVITY ATTAINS MORE
LINEAR CHARACTER WITH SMALL LEWPS/BOWS POSSIBLE.  THEREFORE...MAIN
THREAT IS HAIL W OF FRONT...WIND AND HAIL ALONG FRONT. BRIEF
NON-MESOCYCLONE TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH SFC-BASED FRONTAL
TSTMS...BUT MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.  MLCAPES
TO NEAR 2000 J/KG INDICATED ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SUPPORTED BY SFC
TEMPS RISING INTO 80S F AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S.

..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

38799717 38279741 37469779 36969856 37000073 39149914
39869864 40069788 39909713 39009725 

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