[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121740 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-121915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121740Z - 121915Z

SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS -- ARE
POSSIBLE OVER MO VALLEY REGION FROM SERN NEB/SWRN IA ACROSS NERN
KS/NWRN MO THROUGH AFTERNOON.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM MKC AREA NWWD ACROSS NERN KS --
BETWEEN TOP-FNB -- TO NEAR BIE.  SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT IS DIFFUSE BUT
LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR STJ WNWWD TO NEAR LNK...THEN NWWD TO SFC
LOW S ONL.  COLD FRONT ARCS FROM LOW SWD BETWEEN CNK-MHK THEN SSWWD
NEAR HUT.  PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDS FROM INTERSECTION WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- NEAR BIE -- SWD TO MHK THEN SSWWD TO NEAR END. 
PRIND AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS INITIALLY IS INVOF
OUTFLOW/CONFLUENCE INTERSECTION THEN SWD ALONG CONFLUENCE LINE AS
FRONT CATCHES UP.  CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW AIR MASS
BETWEEN SYNOPTIC FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN NEB TO
HEAT/DESTABILIZE NEXT FEW HOURS...CREATING ZONE OF SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS MO VALLEY TOWARD SWRN IA WITH TIME.  MESOLOW MAY DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL...FURTHER ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 
0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NARROW PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM LNK AREA NWWD
TOWARD SFC LOW IS QUITE CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF BRIEF/LIMITED
OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO FROPA.  HEATING WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE LIMITED BY COMBINATION OF SLOW-ERODING LOW
STRATUS...AND HIGH CLOUDS OF ANVIL ORIGIN ADVECTING NEWD FROM
POSTFRONTAL/ELEVATED TSTMS OVER KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.

..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

39759476 39349498 38759593 39149644 39779665 40919747
41519816 41919748 40689494 40079476 

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