[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121922 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
PLAINS...SERN NM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257...

VALID 121922Z - 122015Z

SEVERE HAIL REMAINS PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS AND SRN
PANHANDLE PORTION WW...HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FAVORING
LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING...AND PARTIAL WW
REPLACEMENT/UPGRADE OF WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. MEANWHILE...SEVERE
TSTM WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FARTHER N ACROSS NRN PANHANDLE INTO NW
OK.  UP TO 3 INCH HAILSTONES REPORTED WITH STORM OVER HALE COUNTY IN
PAST HOUR...AND ADDITIONAL VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM WOODS TO NW
BECKHAM COUNTY OK...SWWD ACROSS PVW AREA TO EXTREME NE HOCKLEY
COUNTY TX...SRN LAMB COUNTY...TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM.  DRYLINE
INTERSECTS FROM NEAR TX/NM BORDER ATTM AND EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS LEA
COUNTY NM.  DRYLINE MAY RETREAT WWD ACROSS ROOSEVELT/LEA COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN
SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST W OF FRONT -- WHERE SFC FLOW
SHOULD VEER TO MORE ELY COMPONENT AND ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS.  PRIND
TSTMS OVER HALE COUNTY -- AND ANY FUTURE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT INVOF
FRONT FROM W CDS SWWD TO NEAR NM BORDER -- MAY ROTATE STRONGLY WHILE
MOVING ALONG/ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE VORTICITY/LIFT ARE
MAXIMIZED.  MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED IN WARM SECTOR FROM LBB
AREA SWD...THOUGH BOTH RUC SOUNDINGS AND JTN PROFILER INDICATE
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.  ELEVATED MUCAPE 2300 J/KG EVIDENT
IN 18Z AMA RAOB...ALONG WITH 50-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ...SUPPORTING
CONTINUED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY TSTMS NRN/ERN PANHANDLE AND
NWRN OK.

..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

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