[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120101 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-120200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS INTO FAR SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 249...

VALID 120101Z - 120200Z

POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG DRYLINE.

AS OF 0047Z...DDC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS TRYING TO BECOME ROOTED
IN BOUNDARY-LAYER E OF DRYLINE OVER STEVENS...GRANT...KEARNY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IN SWRN KS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SEEMINGLY
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DDC. FARTHER TO THE N...GLD
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DUNDY COUNTY NEB SWWD
INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY CO MOVING EWD AT 20 KTS AND INTERSECTING
DRYLINE NEAR GLD. THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO
HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.

GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY
SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION BECOME SUSTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. DIURNAL BACKING AND INTENSIFICATION
OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITHIN COLLAPSING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY-LAYER
E OF DRYLINE ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

40200331 40220009 37009923 37020238 

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