[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120002 
NEZ000-COZ000-120130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEB INTO FAR NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...

VALID 120002Z - 120130Z

THROUGH 02-03Z...EXPECT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW AREA THIS EVENING.

ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ CONTINUE
TO RAPIDLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO
THE N OF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
MCK EWD ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AND THEN MORE SEWD TO NEAR CNK AND
INTO E-CNTRL KS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
PROFILER PLAN VIEW FIELDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALL SUGGEST THAT
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG...DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN
CO/WRN KS. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR PARCELS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH
NWD EXTENT WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WHICH IS QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL THREAT...SUSTAINED LARGE-SCALE FORCING
N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG/N
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2-3"/HOUR. TSTMS --AND INHERENT
HAIL/HEAVY RAIN THREAT-- SHOULD TEND TO DEVELOP EWD OR NEWD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG EWD-MIGRATING AND
INTENSIFYING LLJ AXIS.

..MEAD.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

41810269 41909658 40469656 40400274 

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