[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120131 
TXZ000-NMZ000-120300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 120131Z - 120300Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE IN THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RETREATING DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX
/W OF FST AND INK/ NEWD INTO THE WRN S PLAINS /W OF LBB/ TO NEAR
AMA. AIR MASS HAS REMAINED CAPPED TODAY LARGELY WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LITTLE OR NO LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TIME HEIGHT TRENDS FROM THE
WHITE SANDS NM PROFILER INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX. WEAK RADAR RETURNS NOTED OVER SRN LEA
COUNTY NM ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SIGNAL FROM 12/00Z RUC
SUGGEST THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO BREAK CAP AND INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG DRYLINE WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.

SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A
NEW WW /LIKELY REPLACING WW 250/ MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT BECOMES
APPARENT THAT TSTMS CAN INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED.

..MEAD.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

31680376 33500259 34650196 35640184 35870135 35160048
32790113 31070241 30920361 

WWWW