[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112328 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OH...CENTRAL IND...AND CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251...

VALID 112328Z - 120130Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #251 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
IND EWD INTO WRN/W-CENTRAL OH. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL IL WILL YIELD A SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES LATE
THIS EVENING.

BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM 20NW
CMH TO THE INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA AND WWD TO 10S SPI. RECENT
DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL IL OCCURRED AS SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
INTERSECTED PRE-EXISTING TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 23Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON
THE RUC...MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPSTREAM MCS AND EMBEDDED MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION ACROSS NERN MO WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL IL...AND ALSO
ACROSS THE WW 251 AREA TO THE EAST. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE MAJORITY OF STORMS
BECOMING SUB-SEVERE.

..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

40028944 40078773 40918482 41198340 39888289 38688715
38598811 38718887 38878929 39598998 

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