[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112324 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PNHDLS INTO WRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 250...

VALID 112324Z - 120100Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE
THIS EVENING.

AS OF 2313Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED A SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE FROM 30SE EHA TO NEAR AMA TO
NEAR LBB. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN INHIBITED BY: 1) DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIKELY LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE ENTRAINMENT OF
CONVECTIVE MOIST PLUMES ALONG DRYLINE...AND 2) RELATIVELY WEAK OR
SUBSIDENT LARGE-SCALE MOTION TO THE S OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS.

ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/
AND 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

37030183 37039963 33319924 33340135 

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