[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112225 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ERN KS AND WRN/CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 245...253...

VALID 112225Z - 120030Z

CONTINUE WW 245 AND WW 253. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN AN E-W ORIENTED BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/NERN KS INTO
WRN/CENTRAL MO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2"/HOUR. 

AT 11/22Z...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN E-W ORIENTED BAND
FROM 20NE MHK...THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...AND ACROSS WRN
INTO CENTRAL MO NORTH OF COU. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
REINFORCE MESOSCALE COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF
CONVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
/MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH 15-25KT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING NEW CELLS WITH VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. A SLOW
SWD PROPAGATION OF COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH CONVECTIVE
STORMS MIGRATING INTO WW 253 ACROSS FAR ERN KS AND W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL
MO DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN SWRN MO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE NWD INTO ONGOING STORMS BY MID-LATE EVENING.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OF STORMS AT THAT TIME. 

TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT
BRIEF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CELLS AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8C/KM/ AND 30KT SFC-6KM SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...WHICH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LASTLY...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRESENT A LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT AS LONG AS SWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS REMAINS SLOW.

..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

37869176 38159504 38569596 38939660 39559691 39939693
40139641 40099571 40119490 40189362 40099302 39749242
39169190 38919179 

WWWW