[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112041 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245...

VALID 112041Z - 112215Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS WW
245. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL
MO...A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR KANSAS CITY ALONG
AN EAST TO WEST INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG EXIST.
IN ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT MAINLY NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL THREAT AS STORMS TRACK NEWD INTO THE STRONGER
SHEAR. INITIATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH IF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL MO. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS AREA BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT...COMBINED WITH
THE INSTABILITY...FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

38749246 39069387 38979558 39009634 39499652 39989636
40229513 40139295 39729175 39039172 

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