[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112100 
NEZ000-112300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEB...AND FAR NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112100Z - 112300Z

THREAT EXISTS FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
TO VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB AND FAR NERN CO
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #252
HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

AT 2045Z...STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS
SRN NEB...NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING /MLCAPES OF
2500-3500 K/KG/. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT
IS ALLOWING FOR A PLUME OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PROGRESS NWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB AT THE PRESENT
TIME. THE 18Z RUC INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO TONIGHT. WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH LONGER-LIVED CORES NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.

..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

40799997 40900141 41430227 42480234 42850181 42890026
42739878 42399815 41739761 41199739 40669765 

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