[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112021 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN OH...CENTRAL IND...AND E-CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246...

VALID 112021Z - 112215Z

WW 246 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN OH AND ERN
IND. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WWD ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL IND INTO E-CENTRAL IL. THESE STORMS POSE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND MAY NECESSITATE AN ADDITIONAL WATCH. 

AT 20Z...SCATTERED NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NEAR A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 10S FWA TO 20S LAF TO 30NE MTO.
AXIS OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS...THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE TRACKING
GENERALLY EWD AT 20-25 KT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM
30-35KT...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LONG-LIVED...ORGANIZED STORMS
WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND
SRH IS LIMITED...ALONG WITH LOW MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THUS...PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CELLS IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. 

FURTHER EAST...ACROSS WW 246...ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM NWRN OH INTO
E-CENTRAL IND WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH
ERN OH HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL ISOLATED ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LASTLY...NORTH WINDS FROM LAKE ERIE HAVE
EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NRN OHIO GIVEN COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN
PORTION OF WATCH AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

40368765 40738625 41158521 41408461 41418401 41108396
40738392 40218441 39578524 39408624 39248693 39138772
39158808 39418862 39778884 40188895 

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