[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111925 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-112130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES...MUCH OF WRN TX...AND FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111925Z - 112130Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN A NORTH-SOUTH LINE ACROSS
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THREAT
EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
IN THIS AREA THROUGH EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SOON.

AT 19Z...999MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SERN CO WITH AN
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE WRN OK
PANHANDLE...SWD TO NEAR A AMA-LBB-MAF LINE. INSOLATIONAL HEATING HAS
LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG/ ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND
DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES AN
AXIS OF TOWERING CU ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COINCIDENT AXIS OF
CONFLUENT SURFACE WINDS.

THE 18Z RUC INDICATES THAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...AS 500MB JET ROTATES NEWD FROM NERN NM INTO
ERN CO/WRN KS. HOWEVER...SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35KT IN THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD STILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
ALSO...THE 17Z OBSERVED AMA SOUNDING INDICATED VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 2" IN
DIAMETER...THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND WITH INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL JET TOWARD 12/00Z...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASED SRH AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

34400194 36040182 36860178 37020089 37000021 36899965
36339956 35479959 33399998 32490046 31880110 31740181
32070213 33290233 

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