[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111931 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-112130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111931Z - 112130Z

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NW KS ONCE INITIATION
OCCURS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE
NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED
FROM ECNTRL CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD
ALONG THE CO-KS STATE-LINE AND SEWD AND ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 4000
J/KG. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT JUST TO THE NORTH OF
GOODLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
FAR NW KS...SW NEB AND ERN CO WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55 TO
75 KT RANGE. ALTHOUGH CUMULUS TOWERS MAY STRUGGLE WITH THE SHEAR
INITIALLY...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR. CELLS THAT
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD AND QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. CELLS THAT
INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE DRYLINE...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE
WARM SECTOR AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. OTHER CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN CO WHERE STRONG SHEAR EXISTS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

41490107 41320089 

40319888 40390065 40290338 40060466 39550474 38680470
38150365 37140207 37160063 38219974 39079861 

WWWW