[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111837 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111837Z - 112030Z

SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR ACROSS NE MO AND POSSIBLY CNTRL IL. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED
SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD
FROM NRN MO ACROSS NCNTRL IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FILES SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT. AS NEW CELLS
DEVELOP IN NE MO OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND
DAMAGE. EWD EXTENT OF THREAT QUESTIONABLE INTO CENTRAL IL WHERE CU
FIELD REMAINS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRONGER
STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF MO AND INTO AT LEAST W-CENTRAL IL
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

39069273 39479302 40009296 40479231 40629001 40368825
39408817 38988930 38939163 

WWWW