[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111654 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-111900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IND...WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111654Z - 111900Z

ONGOING STORMS IN NRN IND AND NEW CELLS THAT INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH
WILL HAVE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE STORMS
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK EWD. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL
IL EXTENDING ENEWD INTO FAR NW OH AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ELEVATED
STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE
CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WARMING SFC
TEMPS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED THE CAPPING INVERSION MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF INDIANAPOLIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING
CUMULUS ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING NEWD FROM
CNTRL IND INTO FAR NW OH. CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1
TO 2 HOURS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS WHERE LOWER TO MID 60 F SFC
DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG MULTICELLS
OR EVEN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES BELOW 3 KM AS SHOWN IN THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOULD
FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
CAN INITIATE OR WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

41358349 40918333 40488380 39898507 39188603 39278656
39878699 40188688 41108637 41628555 41728468 41668383 

WWWW