[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111545 
FLZ000-GAZ000-111815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111545Z - 111815Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN GA/NRN AND
CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. THREAT EXISTS FOR LARGE
HAIL WITH LONG-LIVED/STRONG CORES. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW AND A SLGT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE 1630Z DAY 1
OUTLOOK.  

THE 700-500MB THERMAL LOW ANALYZED ACROSS SERN GA THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS SEWD ALONG THE NERN FL COAST AND INTO THE ADJACENT SERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THIS
FEATURE HAS ESTABLISHED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.0
C/KM AT JAX AND CHS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS LIKELY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEVELOPING SEABREEZES AND OTHER
SMALL-SCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30KT FROM
THE NW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS AND MULTICELLULAR STORM
CLUSTERS ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING
PERIOD. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGER CORES...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

31218123 31668112 31828126 31858164 31568222 31268278
31098329 30388361 30058359 29738343 29478311 29228280
28118270 27898221 27888104 27988051 29008090 29618116
30388115 

WWWW