[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111341 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN MO...FAR WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111341Z - 111545Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER NE KS...NRN MO AND FAR WRN IL AS
ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN KS
EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN MO. ISOLATED STRONG CELLS ARE ONGOING NEAR
THE BOUNDARY BUT ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION
EVIDENT ON THE TOP 12Z SOUNDING. A VORTICITY MAX IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH CNTRL KS AS SHOWN ON THE RUC ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH NOT YET
CERTAIN...INCREASED LIFT AS THE VORTICITY MAX MOVES ACROSS NE KS AND
NWRN MO...COULD AID NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS NCNTRL MO AND POSSIBLY NE KS AS SUGGESTED BY THE
NAM40/SREF/WRF MODELS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFTED INDEX VALUES
OF -4 TO -8 NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ELEVATED WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

38669521 38919722 39259745 40409710 40409519 40759353
41109162 40509099 39809108 39159287 

WWWW