[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101923 
TXZ000-NMZ000-102130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101923Z - 102130Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM THROUGH THIS EVENING.  ONCE INITIATION
BECOMES EVIDENT...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION.

DRYLINE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED...EXTENDING AT 19Z FROM
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SSWWD TO NEAR LBB AND INTO THE DAVIS MTNS AREA.
RICH GULF MOISTURE PERSISTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS PROGRESSING UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND READINGS NEAR 60
AROUND MAF AND BETWEEN LBB/CDS. THE 18Z RUC SHOWS CONTINUED SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL CO SWD INTO
ERN NM AND FAR SWRN TX. IF THE ISOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS A SSELY
SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR
DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO...MID-LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES INTO ERN TX
BY 00Z. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE START OF TOWERING CU ALONG THE
DAVIS MTNS AND SCATTERED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN
TX.

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES 1500-3000 J/KG/ AND
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /UP TO 9 C/KM/ SHOULD SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE
HAIL...HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...MINIMAL
CIN...AND SELY SURFACE WINDS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
DRYLINE MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES 22-01Z.

..BANACOS.. 05/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

32580097 33530023 34349994 34730015 34950080 34470143
33780222 33120280 32490333 31510395 30900419 30660415
30420386 30380329 30600264 31340185 

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