[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101855 
VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-102030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WV...WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101855Z - 102030Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM CNTRL KY EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS OH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F.
CELLS HAVE INITIATED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS ALONG A
BAND OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD MOVING TROUGH. CELLS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE MOVING EWD INTO ERN OH...WRN PA AND WV
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
THREAT MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 05/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...

39228222 41148273 41628223 41978094 41687994 40777935
39757926 38527914 37507947 37098056 37068181 38258226 

WWWW