[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102201 
IAZ000-NEZ000-110000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THRU ERN NEB INTO SW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102201Z - 110000Z

WW IS LIKELY WITHIN NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING VICINITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA.  LOOPS OF LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.  THIS...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HEATING WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...IS
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING INHIBITION.  BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN MOIST LAYER LIFTING OVER FRONT...APPEAR LIKELY
TO  APPROACH 3000 J/KG WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN KANSAS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER FEATURE ROUNDS CREST
OF BROADER-SCALE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE.  INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER AS EARLY AS 23-00Z TIME FRAME...FROM VICINITY
OF DRY LINE FRONT INTERSECTION SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE INTO
VICINITY OF FRONT/LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTION SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK. 
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL LIKELY...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 05/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

40640044 41300038 42079879 42249727 42169619 41579526
40919540 40529642 40549761 40419819 40279974 

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