[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100120 
TXZ000-100315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 100120Z - 100315Z

CURRENT PLANS ARE TO ALLOW WW 240 TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...BUT CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.

NEWEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF BROWNWOOD IS OCCURRING ABOVE
CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING STORMS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND EAST OF JUNCTION. 
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...AND LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BECOME BASED ABOVE INVERSION
SHORTLY.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL COMPLETELY
END.  DESPITE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL
CAPPING MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SAN ANGELO/ABILENE AREAS BY 03-06Z.  LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY WITH NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF 30+ KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION.  IF LEVELS OF FREE
CONVECTION ARE REACHED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
LARGE ENOUGH CAPE FOR HAIL THREAT...DESPITE WEAKNESS OF MID/UPPER
FLOW.

..KERR.. 05/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32250138 33889940 33919846 32369709 31209795 30419879
29829966 29820081 30520168 

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