[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092259 
TXZ000-100100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240...

VALID 092259Z - 100100Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND...PERHAPS...WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME
EAST OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH/WEST OF THE AUSTIN TX AREA. 
THIS ACTIVITY IS BASED IN MOIST MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  STORMS ARE NEARLY
STATIONARY IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...WITH A SLOW WESTWARD/
NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CELLS ALONG OUTFLOWS.  GIVEN FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 01-02Z...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
COOL AND INHIBITION INCREASES FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS.

..KERR.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

31739852 32349817 33189790 31999723 31159716 30189813
30199882 30369945 30919961 

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