[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092232 
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-092300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MN...WI...CNTRL AND NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 239...

VALID 092232Z - 092300Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  MUCH...IF NOT ALL... OF 239 MAY BE
CLEARED OR CANCELLED AROUND 23Z.

FORCING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  RELATIVELY WEAK MIXED LAYER
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG HAS LIMITED STRENGTH OF MOST VIGOROUS 
STORMS...AND PEAK INTENSITIES MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.  WITH
APPROACH OF SUNSET...AND ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING... 
THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  SOME
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING INTO
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS...AS WELL AS WITH ISOLATED STORMS LINGERING NEAR/NORTHWEST OF
THE DECATUR/CHAMPAIGN AREAS.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..KERR.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

45359084 45348848 41198722 41148958 

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