[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092144 
MSZ000-LAZ000-092345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA / MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092144Z - 092345Z

WHILE COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL STORMS WILL BE BELOW WATCH
CRITERIA...ISOLATED REPORTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LARGEST HAIL STONES
FROM CENTRAL MS SWD INTO ERN LA.

ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...WLY SFC-850 FLOW AND RESULTING THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT BENEATH MID
LEVEL COOL AXIS. WHILE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS ARE GENERALLY
WEAK...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH HEIGHT...WITH
STRONGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS AVERAGING 35-40 KTS OVER SRN MS /
LA. GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY WARM /
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SW...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
LIKELY...WITH A REPORT OR TWO UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

..JEWELL.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

30579201 31389190 32529103 34689038 34048915 33638873
32418883 30858907 30358960 29999082 

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