[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092031 
ILZ000-WIZ000-092200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 239...

VALID 092031Z - 092200Z

A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EWD REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AS NEW CELLS
DEVELOP TO THE WEST ACROSS SCNTRL WI AND POSSIBLY NRN IL. A HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXIST WITH ANY NEW CELLS THAT INITIATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WW 239.

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS SE MN AND ERN IA
WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED FROM NWRN WI EXTENDING SEWD INTO NRN IL. A
LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT NEW CELLS
ARE INITIATING BACK TO THE WEST WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. THESE NEW CELLS APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE AS THE CELLS
MOVE NEWD INTO A POCKET OF HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ENE OF I-90.

..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

41218863 41498962 44269050 45039062 45249002 45188862
44608827 41838756 41298764 

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