[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092003 
TXZ000-092200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092003Z - 092200Z

...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN GIVEN STORM
DEVELOPMENT...

TOWERING CUMULUS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY BETWEEN
SAN ANGELO AND BURNETT PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LTG
RECENTLY OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG HEATING
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S IS CONTRIBUTING TO
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SBCAPE VALUES MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. IT MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF CONTINUED MIXING...BUT IF STORMS
FORM...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT IN THIS VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SVR TSTM WATCH.

..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

29849925 30340020 31509980 32349929 32379813 31469799
30619805 30229824 

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