[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091930 
IDZ000-MTZ000-092100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091930Z - 092100Z

CONVECTION ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN ID WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE ORE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG
DIVERGENT UPPER-FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM ERN ORE...ID AND WRN WY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT CONTINUING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...SBCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -18 TO -20C WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

44561471 44851389 44621289 43751197 42701200 42211236
42031319 42271392 43411467 

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