[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091700 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-091830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091700Z - 091830Z

AN ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN WI
AND NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK
NNEWD. A WW MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM A
SFC LOW ACROSS SRN MN...ECNTRL IA WITH A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SEWD INTO SE MN...SW WI AND IL. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWS A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THIS IS HELPING STORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS FAR SW WI AND
NRN IL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NNEWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A
VORTICITY MAX OVER SE IA SPREADS STRONG LIFT OVER THE AREA...EVIDENT
ON THE RUC ANALYSIS. SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
RESULT IN A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

44119079 44188992 43128837 41798756 40878731 40218782
40468899 42058982 43359112 

WWWW