[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091619 
LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-091745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091619Z - 091745Z

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SRN LA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS LA...SE AR AND
WRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.

16Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM LA
THROUGH ERN AR AND WRN MS. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
MOIST AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST CELL LOCATED IN SERN LA WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION IS IN PLACE ACROSS SE LA...THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE
SFC-BASED AS TEMPS HEAT UP AND THE CAP WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE STORMS
PATH. THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WHICH
COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LA...WRN MS AND FAR SE AR...AS
TEMPS HEAT AND INSTABILITY INCREASES TODAY...STRONG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROVIDE STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOIST AXIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WCNTRL LA AND SE AR. IF STORMS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE...THE INSTABILITY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED HAIL
AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

32388986 30288949 29338979 29229136 29549331 30759309
32159250 33879151 33459027 

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