[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090430 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-090630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NRN/ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 090430Z - 090630Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE
WITH STRONG STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTH/EAST OF THE
WICHITA KS AREA...MAINTAINED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...
BENEATH BASE OF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH.  ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOUTHWARD SURGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...VEERING
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
CONVECTION THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  LOWER/
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO STABILIZE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND...AS 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY... INHIBITION ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL HOLD FIRM
OR STRENGTHEN. THIS MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER.

..KERR.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36759777 37389736 37729676 37709583 37549507 36729461
35419477 34999583 35659659 35879729 36489818 

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