[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090053 
OKZ000-KSZ000-090300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/CNTRL AND ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234...

VALID 090053Z - 090300Z

NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...PERHAPS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 234.


FORCING ON TAIL END OF IMPULSE SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND SOUTH DAKOTA
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
NORTH OF MANHATTAN INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF WICHITA.  ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG.  EAST OF THE TOPEKA/CHANUTE AREAS...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
COOL AND STABLE.  WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING EVEN IN AREAS TO THE
WEST...CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...BASED ABOVE
DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.

MODELS SUGGEST VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH BASE OF NORTHERN
PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION ALONG/ EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...SOUTH OF WICHITA INTO NORTH CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.  THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED...AND RISK OF LARGE
HAIL MAY CONTINUE ON EASTERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

38189737 38489656 37889591 37069554 36389536 35939554
35299654 35559744 36369771 36999777 

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