[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 9 00:05:39 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 090014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090014 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-090215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/NRN IA/MN/WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 090014Z - 090215Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 02Z...BUT NEW WWS
MAY NOT BE NEEDED.

CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SOLIDIFY IN CYCLONIC ARC EAST OF
BISMARCK ND THROUGH THE SIOUX FALLS SD/OMAHA NEB AREAS.  THIS
APPEARS TO CORRESPOND WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. JUST EAST OF THIS
LINE...NORTH OF FORT DODGE IA INTO THE MANKATO MN AREA...AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH SURFACE COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY
ENHANCED DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN PORTION
OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.

THIS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.  WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD...HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME PRIMARY THREAT
SHORTLY.  BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF CONVECTION...TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF
GRAND FORKS ND/DULUTH MN/LA CROSSE WI...REMAINS WARM AND MOIST. 
THIS WILL ENHANCE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS...CONTRIBUTING TO WIND POTENTIAL.  NORTH/EAST OF THIS
LINE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DIMINISH IN COOLER/COOLING LOW
ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 05/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...

47779939 48829719 47719309 45489143 43839152 42829391
41959515 41409626 42939604 44049608 45959814 46379873 

WWWW