[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081806 
OKZ000-TXZ000-082000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK/NW TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081806Z - 082000Z

...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG BOTH DRYLINE EXTENDING
SWWD FROM NW TX AND ALONG TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH TX
MCS... 

FIRST...TOWERING CU HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF SNK ALONG/EAST
OF THE DRYLINE WHICH IS ANALYZED VCNTY CDS/SNK/MAF/FST. VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME CUMULUS FORMING AS FAR NE AS WICHITA
FALLS. ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
AOA 2000 J/KG. JAYTON TX PROFILER SHOWS 30-35 KT OF FLOW NEAR
5KM...AND AREA VAD WIND DATA FROM FREDERICK OK SUPPORTS THIS.
DRYLINE WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AND WW MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTN.

SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG TSTM OUTFLOW VCNTY SJT/DLF. ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER IN THIS REGION...SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS.

..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

29179997 29950152 32200187 34900001 34849917 34589866
33079921 31389885 29499871 28729911 28709982 

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