[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081626 
TXZ000-081730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230...

VALID 081626Z - 081730Z

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S CNTRL TX IN VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MCS EXTENDS FROM ERN TX
NEAR LONGVIEW SWWD TO NEAR HONDO. STORMS ARE WEAKENING ALONG ERN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...STORMS
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED SWRN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY NEAR HONDO. WIDESPREAD STRATUS EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR S
OF THE BOUNDARY AND IS DELAYING HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STATUS IS
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT FROM THE S. AS THIS OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM
SECTOR S...AND IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHERE 40-50
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY EXISTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
STORMS NEAR HONDO WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY
INTENSIFY WITH TIME. OTHER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND CAP WEAKENS. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 05/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28500013 29709962 30139636 30139522 29319484 28509659
27989916 

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