[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081810 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-082045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN SD...WRN MN AND NERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081810Z - 082045Z

ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
BUT...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD SWD THROUGH E
CNTRL NEB. A DRY LINE EXISTS E OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB. A
SUBTLE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MN NWWD INTO SERN ND. A FAIRLY
STRONG VORT MAX IS ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
CNTRL NEB. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EAST...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NERN NEB THROUGH SERN SD ALONG AND E OF
THE DRYLINE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER N
AND E IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD...SERN ND AND WRN MN
AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS ALREADY
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN SD...SERN ND
INTO SWRN MN WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SELY TO THE E OF
SURFACE LOW.

..DIAL.. 05/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...

42159758 43279841 44899915 46370036 47629902 47609709
45899536 42839625 

WWWW