[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081337 
TXZ000-081430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081337Z - 081430Z

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER E CNTRL TX WILL MOVE E OF WW
230 BY 1445Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
UNDERGO AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS DURING THE
NEXT HOUR SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...A SMALL WW
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF ERN TX.


LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR PALESTINE TO NEAR COLLEGE
STATION IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 45 KT. STORMS STILL APPEAR
ORGANIZED WITH BOW ECHO STRUCTURES AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
OVER ERN TX. MOREOVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SLOW
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS. THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO
UNDERGO SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION TO EXTEND THE
WATCH FARTHER EAST.

..DIAL.. 05/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

30519519 32379507 32759428 31529391 30439443 

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