[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070156 
NEZ000-SDZ000-070330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...SD...ERN CO...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222...

VALID 070156Z - 070330Z

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT
03Z.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONGEAL/CONSOLIDATE IN THE VICINITY
OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING IS ONGOING...AND ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY IS ALREADY BASED
ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER.  FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT
WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR PRIMARY NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN PROCESS OF BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BETWEEN BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS CONTINUES TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT.

WEAK FLOW WITHIN MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THIS REGION WILL MINIMIZE
SHEAR...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.

..KERR.. 05/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...

42990250 43440075 42649886 41329843 40599940 40870051
41560175 

WWWW