[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070054 
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-070300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/SRN WI/ERN IA/NRN IL

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 070054Z - 070300Z

...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...

AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT IS NARROW...EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM OSH/DBQ INTO NCNTRL IA. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE HAS SUPPORTED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THUS FAR...WITH SEVERAL
REPORTS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH HAIL. HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES...THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD DIMINISH. THE MAIN
FORCING FOR STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND AS THIS FORCING SHIFTS EWD INTO LOWER MI/IN/OH
OVERNIGHT...A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE MAINTAINED. DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS ACROSS LOWER MI IS MUCH DRIER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE MID 40S...WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

45028305 43468439 42028687 41458776 41879034 42529087
43558975 44678637 45688503 45738299 45308291 

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