[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062041 
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-062245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/NW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062041Z - 062245Z

STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS INHIBITION
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.

OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT 18Z FROM BOTH RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE
INDICATED SLIGHT CAP STILL IN PLACE...BUT MODIFIED SOUNDINGS WITH
20Z DATA SUGGEST INHIBITION IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ATTEMPTS AT SFC
BASED CONVECTION ARE ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS ATTM...WITH LATEST
MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT...THEREFORE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
INCREASE. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS
ONCE STORMS BECOME SFC BASED.

..TAYLOR.. 05/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

41520337 42440409 45520371 45910246 45400162 44650082
43260049 42120032 41710056 

WWWW