[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062014 
TXZ000-NMZ000-062215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SERN NM AND SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062014Z - 062215Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CNTRL THROUGH SERN NM INTO SW TX. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A WW.

HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
THIS SHOULD HELP HOLD SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 50 CLOSE TO THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN NM AND SWRN TX. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM INTO SWRN
TX WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING. AN
ISOLATED STORM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS JUST N OF
MARFA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD
EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 05/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

30650375 32250469 35220474 35280316 32680294 30890245 

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