[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062242 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-070045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221...222...

VALID 062242Z - 070045Z

CONTINUE WWS...NEW WW ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH OF WW
222 MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW REGIME...DOWNSTREAM OF SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU.  THOUGH EVEN IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ONLY MODERATELY STRONG AT BEST...VEERING WITH
HEIGHT ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.  VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY MOST VIGOROUS STORMS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED.

TOWARD THE 07/00-03Z TIME FRAME...CONSOLIDATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY
INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME
FOCUSED ON NOSE OF 30 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.

..KERR.. 05/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

43910450 44620345 44510167 43830093 43410040 42759920
41549876 39919885 38470000 37110173 36810335 37680350
39030248 41010287 42390372 

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