[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061856 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-062100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...EXTREME WRN OK AND TX
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061856Z - 062100Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NERN NM AND SERN CO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM INTO SERN CO. RECENT
SURFACE AND VWP TRENDS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO
BACK OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ACCOMPANYING NEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ. BACKING LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FARTHER WWD.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN NM INTO SERN CO...AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. 
STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME AS HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD INTO
WRN NM. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORM MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 05/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

35620492 37020457 38750346 38500220 36750246 35220316
34970433 

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